There is a great scene in the original Karate Kid, where Daniel has had enough with painting Mr. Miyagi’s fences, sanding his floors, and waxing his cars. Daniel believed he was learning nothing of any value, so when Miyagi tells him to return again the following the day, Daniel refuses. What happens next is a classic eighties movie scene, it’s worth catching it again on Youtube.
This scene reminds viewers of the importance of patience, and the need to see potential especially when the immediate rewards aren’t obvious. Steve Jobs alludes to this in his outstanding Stanford speech, when he explains that you can only join the dots looking backwards, not forwards. This notion of everything finally coming together is how I feel about Microsoft this past year.
The Windows Phone
Having watched the MIX keynote where the new phone was finally unveiled, I have to say that this is the first phone since the original iPhone that is genuinely interesting to me. It’s not likely I’ll switch, but credit is due to Microsoft for at least stepping away from the “grid of icons” style interface that the iPhone pioneered. It’s worth noting that this is one occasion where no one is accusing Microsoft of ripping anyone off. This phone didn’t come out of nowhere however, it is a descendent of the Zune, Silverlight, Bing and Surface. Four technologies that, to your average Slashdot reader, seemed about as useful as Daniel learning to wax-on and wax-off.
On the surface
When the Surface was released two years ago it was chastised by the public. The joke at the time was: “Apple and Microsoft both invest in multi-touch technology, Apple release the iPhone, Microsoft release a $15,000 coffee table!”.
But Surface wasn’t about “re-inventing the coffee table”, so much as it was prototyping a vision of the future of computing. There will come a time when “gathering around a laptop” will seem as ridiculous as connecting an ethernet cable; a time when everyone gathers around a multi-user computer to have a meeting or debate a design. With something like surface, Microsoft are preparing for that day.
Baby steps and the Zune
The Zune is criticised for it’s poor market share and is regarded as a failure. It’s important to remember that it took three years for the iPod to get market dominance, and it’ll take a lot longer than that for anyone to make inroads into it. To criticise the Zune for a poor market share misses the point. It’s like criticising a child because its first steps weren’t of olympic standards. By creating the Zune, Microsoft learned how to ship quality hardware, how to create a marketplace, and most importantly by competing in a market with Apple, the entire team had to up their game. For Microsoft the Zune wasn’t so much about the iPod market, as it was developing a product that competes on design, in a well-measured market. The Arc mouse, shown below, is one example of Microsoft flexing it’s new found industrial design muscles.
On Bing and the Web
At the same time, while developing their hardware competency, Microsoft have been busy building Bing as a realistic alternative to Google, Bing Maps as an arguably superior alternative to Google maps and Silverlight as the only viable alternative to Flash. But again, Bing isn’t so much about competing with Google.com as it is about developing search technology (which is used in the new phone), and Silverlight isn’t about beating Flash, more so it’s about a unified approach to building applications on the web, the desktop, the phone, the Surface, and whatever else is to come.
Potential versus Reality
I have no time for those who obsess over potential, giving it equal weight with reality. I admire, respect and buy Apple for what they produce, not any fancy demo videos they post on YouTube.
However the inability to see potential in technology is a poor character trait, especially for anyone claiming to keep up-to-date with technology. Microsoft have been producing products to verify each piece of technology they’re building, and with devices like the new phone they’re demonstrating the potential of their integration.
Courier
When a concept video like Courier comes out, it’s too easy to think this is yet another batshit Origami-like Microsoft idea that simply can’t or won’t happen.
But Microsoft has spent the last 5 years researching industrial design, UI design, hardware, software, multi touch, voice recognition, gesture recognition, zoomable interfaces, and all the while the tech community can only see a Zune that’s no iPod, a Surface that’s no iPhone, looney image processing techniques that are only useful at a TED talk, and overall a company acting in despair.
Every piece of technology required for Courier has its origins in this research. Add to this what they’ve inevitably learned from other projects such as Natal and you have to conclude that that Microsoft have not been treading water. They’ve been making massive strides, not all of them visible.
The downside
You never know which Microsoft is going to show up, however. It could be the team who released slick Arc mice, Windows 7, HD Zunes, and Xbox 360s, or it could be the guys who held Microsoft’s future in their hands, and yet somehow named it “Windows Phone 7 Series”. You simply never know. You’ll just have to come back tomorrow.
16 Comments
Hey, don’t forget about the cloud…
Azure is still trying to find it’s legs in some regards, but Microsoft have spent the last three years playing catchup on Amazon, investing billions in building Azure data centers around the world, including Ireland.
Microsoft in 5 years time will be a very different company.
Posted by Eamon Leonard at 8:18 pm on 16 March, 2010.
People constantly slag off Microsoft either in terms of them trying to play catch-up with Apple or the inevitable ‘M$ of Evil’ like they’re war criminals or something. Yet .Net is one of the most powerful and accessible frameworks around, Azure is building on that.
Microsoft have a habit of not rating when they are first to market, but when the watch the market to see how it plays and then join in, that’s when they produce something great like .Net.
Posted by Phil at 8:19 pm on 16 March, 2010.
This is what comes to mind when I think of Microsoft: Vista, IE6, and Windows ME.
I do agree with the main point of this article, though. Microsoft is making strides by investing in the research of new, innovative technologies. I personally think these innovations are purely the result of Anti-Trust lawsuits from ~10 years ago.
Products like IE6,Windows ME, and Vista were of a stagnant monopoly who has no incentive to innovate or invest in research. If it weren’t for Firefox, we’d all still be using IE6. Now, they’re in a competitive market on many fronts, and they are forced to compete. This competition benefits consumers tremendously.
Posted by Name at 4:09 am on 17 March, 2010.
People bash Microsoft for good reason, because they are a convicted Monopolist who have held back computing for many years, due to there inferior Windows Platform, Internet Explorer, FUD campaigns, etc…
That being said, they have produces some great products as well.
I take issue with the premise of the article, Microsoft have been creating great hardware for many years, including Keyboard and Mice that have been really good. Their original PC Pocket/Window Mobile software was superior to the Palm stuff at the time, they just lost focus.
Microsoft is an anomaly, still, as a web developer I will never trust them again for IE 6, and still have problems with .Net. No thanks.
Posted by cak at 4:53 am on 17 March, 2010.
“By creating the Zune, Microsoft learned how to ship quality hardware, how to create a marketplace, and most importantly by competing in a market with Apple, the entire team had to up their game.”
Wasn’t this the lesson they were supposed to have learned while developing the xbox?
Interesting article, but until Microsoft ceases the “me too” mentality of trying to develop copycat technology better than the competition, they will continue to become irrelevant.
Posted by Brad Carps at 1:10 pm on 17 March, 2010.
“But Microsoft has spent the last 5 years researching industrial design, UI design, hardware, software, multi touch, voice recognition, gesture recognition, zoomable interfaces”
And therein lies their continuing problem. While they’ve been researching it, everybody else has productized it and moved on.
Posted by Calum at 1:50 pm on 17 March, 2010.
I very much wish Microsoft to start doing a good job on designing and sipping quality products.
My only interaction with Microsoft is that I have to buy a computer which has it’s OS on it, and use Office which is apparently used by everyone else.
Please Microsoft , do something useful at a price point people can access .
Posted by Alex Apetrei at 2:46 pm on 17 March, 2010.
Thanks for the comments everyone.
@Eamon - Yep, kinda forgot that there is a whole wing taking on Amazon too
@Cak - I realise Microsoft have been producing mice and keyboards for quite some time, but there is a different between the Arc mouse and what came before it, and there is a massive difference between say the ZuneHD and the Pocket PCs
@Brad Carps - I kind of agree re: the Me Too Mentality. But the Zune/Phone etc are a different device to the XBOX. And I don’t see the company becoming irrelevant personally. Much is written about MS saying they’ll go the way of IBM, in that they’ll still be a massive company, just one that no one cares about. I see Natal/Zune/XBOX/WinPhone as a massive counterstrike to that notion.
@Calum - Microsoft have productized each of those things. The Zune is a product, Windows 7 is a product, Natal is a product, Bing maps are a product. What MS is in a great position to do, is integrate all of this.
Posted by Des Traynor at 12:47 pm on 18 March, 2010.
Also, where would the modern web be without XMLHttpRequest? That little bit of browser goodness that make’s AJAX possible. Invented by Microsoft, introduced in IE5, and copied / implemented by every other browser since.
This cool piece of tech is taken for granted by every user, every day and changed the way people interact with websites and web applications.
Posted by Eamon Leonard at 7:07 pm on 18 March, 2010.
@Calum: brilliant!
@Des: I really hope you’re right. I would love to see Apple have some genuine competition, now that they actually know how to compete. But here’s my concerns with that list you named off, and why I am not optimistic.
1. As a developer, I see Windows 7 as a massive legacy product: adding more and more code to fulfill the promises of stability, usability and security… from windows 98. Sure, it’s a different kernel, but it performs in a nearly identical fashion, while the operating system is on the verge of becoming the browser. The Surface demo you showed me should have been where Microsoft was throwing the resources of its entire company 2 years ago, when Apple, Google, Sun, and even parts of the Linux community saw the revolution coming.
I think this is very important because Windows 7 represents the end of a huge investment. Where will they go next?
2. The Zune is such an obvious attempt to capitalize on and repeat the success of the iPod, it hardly merits discussion. Appropriately, the market has rejected it as a mostly awkward, less-usable iPod for people who can’t afford an iPod Touch.
3. Natal might be nice… in time to catch up with whatever Nintendo releases. Also, their metaverse would have a long way to catch up before they rival Second Life.
That said, I do like where the XBOX, Surface, Microsoft Phone (my new name for Windows Phone 7 Series), and Courier are going… but will the bright ideas ever reach the surface before the impatient business world looks elsewhere? While MS fans are waiting for that integration, Apple and Google already have finished or nearly-finished products. The only advantage I see with the Microsoft Phone OS is that it’s significantly differentiated from the other products available, unlike many of their other devices and applications.
@Eamon: you make it sound like Microsoft actively fostered AJAX, when in reality, the development was incidental, and they’ve been trying desperately to kill the web-based application for years because it threatened their desktop model. Hence, why IE still has a broken CSS box model.
Posted by Brad Carps at 6:10 am on 19 March, 2010.
I should also point out that Apple held a majority market share in the digital MP3 music player market in 2004, a few months after 2 years. Apple hit the ground running and upstarted Sony, Creative, and iRiver. It’s been mroe than 10, and Apple sells roughly 35x more music devices.
Posted by Brad Carps at 6:24 am on 19 March, 2010.
Hey Brad,
Thanks for sticking around. Just to clarify I wrote this piece as an /alternative/ take on Microsoft.
It’s just lazy opinion hounding that has people saying “omg ms are dumb, they are an evil monopoly, they kill children” etc. I wanted to write about another way to look at it. So, just to be clear, I’m not a raging pro-Microsoft lunatic. I’m someone hoping to improve the standard of debate. Credit where it’s due. Microsoft created this industry. They can’t be blamed for their successes. IE6 was once the best web browser on the market, believe it or not.
Anyways, on your 3 points, again I’m not disagreeing with you, I’m suggesting another way to look at things.
Windows 7 is the only multitouch desktop operating system. Is that a big deal? Who knows? Do I see a future where touchscreen is used a lot more in an operating system (in conjunction with mouse,keyboard,audio,video, etc). Hell Yes!
Microsoft can’t throw their entire resources anywhere (nor can Apple for that matter, or any company). Already in this thread we’ve seen that they have webservers, cloud computing, desktop operating systems, mobile operating systems, office software , gaming consoles, you name it. A company that big can’t turn on a sixpence.
2. My point with the Zune is that, if nothing else, they made massive strides in producing consumer hardware. Have you ever actually used a Zune out of curiousity? I find that most people queue up to criticise them. I’d be interested to hear in what way you believe a Zune is less usable than an iPod touch?
3. Natal is an odd one. You say “catch up” but you have to remember Natal is just a plugin for the XBOX 360. It’s not a standalone console. In that sense it’ll be hard to judge “Natal vs Wii” or PS3 for that matter.
On iPod sales I said “3 years”, you’re correctly it’s really more like 2 years and a few months. Hardly a start contrast. You can see the effect I’m talking about here: http://url.ie/5ft5
Posted by Des Traynor at 12:30 pm on 19 March, 2010.
@Brad - True, the threat against their desktop model was one of their main motivations for going up against Netscape in the first place. That being said, the web is a very different place now compared to the late 90s and early 00s.
I’m not saying they fostered anything, other than an army of haters perhaps… but they did create a piece of tech that the modern web now relies heavily on.
Furthermore, I’m not denying that they’ve had a chequered past when it comes to trying to curtail the web industry — great example http://www.campaignmonitor.com/blog/post/2393/microsoft-takes-email-design-b/
I think the purpose of this post by Des was to highlight that the company everyone loves to hate are doing some interesting things at the moment, and I’m sure we’ll all be watching them closely over the next while (…and I’m sure some will be waiting for them to trip up
)
Posted by Eamon Leonard at 12:41 pm on 19 March, 2010.
@Brad “they’ve been trying desperately to kill the web-based application for years because it threatened their desktop model. Hence, why IE still has a broken CSS box model.” I find that hard to believe, it sounds a little bit *conspiracy* to me. Considering their commitment to Azure and their investment into Asp.NET over the last 8 (9?) years suggests otherwise. From reading Echolibre’s blog they’re also making an impressive effort for the php community.
Microsoft trying to kill web-based applications? I’d like to see some actual evidence of this other than ie6’s non-compliance being a pain in the ass.
And while I’m defending Microsoft I’ll accept that not everything they do is brilliant, Vista being the prime example, but it is just technology and when it comes to development we should be neutral on what technology is most appropriate to use, on a particular project, at that time. Dismissing Microsoft’s offerings because they’re evil, which it sounds like your suggesting, isn’t the way its done.
Posted by Phil at 12:57 pm on 19 March, 2010.
@des: i admire your ability to look at microsoft from another standpoint. i tend to do the same thing around my apple friends, and sing microsoft’s praises around my linux friends.
when it comes to my experience as a web developer, though, the years of frustration inevitably make their way back. sorry if i seem too ranty.
i do remember ie6. i also remember ie5/mac. lovely browser.
i believe microsoft supported multitouch in xp tablet, and i know os x and ubuntu can support it… just not as well as, say, the iphone os or android or windows 7. yeah, multitouch is here to stay, and i’m glad the scrollbar is finally dead.
i think one of the most important reasons why apple was able to successfully remake itself was because they were willing and able to radically shift direction when it became apparent that the old ways were fading, and the idea that a company can do everything was wrong. i really hope microsoft has this realization soon, because otherwise, they are going to be in a lot of trouble, and have to make even more drastic changes. in my opinion, it’s a matter of when: if they change now, then they only have to turn on a $5. in the future, it may be a dime.
you know, despite all the crap i give ms, they’ve made good hardware for a longtime. i’ve always owned their mice. the xbox took it to a new level. later generations of the zune, to me, just indicate that they are embracing modern hardware design. i did briefly use a friend’s 1st gen zune. i seem to recall not being impressed with something about the ui but that was a long time ago. given that i like the “content is the chrome” ui of the microsoft phone, i suppose i should take another look.
that said, take a look at sony. they have always been able to make good hardware, but it’s their crippling, monolithic attitude that makes them incapable of good technology-related business decisions.
natal strikes me as more than just a plugin, rather as an evolution of the xbox into a home internet commerce, gaming, and entertainment platform. i just about shit when i saw the girl design the dress, preview it on her avatar, and then purchase it. THAT was incredible; the rest of it looked like the wii 2. while you can, in theory, do that sort of thing as an upgrade, it just seems unlikely, especially given how much effort has to go into getting it to “just work,” and how often in their history microsoft has had trouble with that concept. seems easier and more likely to me to either replace it altogether, or at the very least, have an intermediate step.
@eamon: you’re right, the web is a different place now, and microsoft is a different company. new microsoft may be web 2.0, but that doesn’t mean old, web 1.0 microsoft didn’t exist.
i have no problem with giving them credit for things like inventing the pc industry, but when people start attaching benevolent reasoning behind it, i must object. it was business, plain and simple.
@phil: please note my criticism was past-tense. now that they figured how to make money with this whole “internet thing,” web apps are their best friend. with azure, for example, microsoft waited for half a decade while amazon (and to a lesser extent, google) was daring enough to make money off cloud computing services, and then decided to try and join the party, long after the way was paved. i predict their effort will fare better than the zune vs. ipod because microsoft IS corporate computing — it’s a great fit.
their support of non-microsoft technologies like php is relatively recent. remember how “old” microsoft tried to kill java with “poisoned” virtual machines? back in the day, they would just write their own. oh, who am i kidding, they still do (e.g., silverlight).
>Microsoft trying to kill web-based applications? I’d like to see some actual evidence of this
ie6’s non-compliance.
xmlhttprequest started off as being a part of a web interface to exchange server. when google started to demonstrate that it was awesome for other things, mozilla jumped on the bandwagon, and red flags went up. read over the wasp if you don’t believe me.
don’t confuse “evil” with “good business decision.” ms did (and still does) most of its business on the desktop, and with this shift to web applications, it made perfect business sense to try and prevent or delay the inevitable. they have a history of doing this, in fact, which was why they also have a history of anti-trust issues.
Posted by Brad Carps at 9:12 pm on 20 March, 2010.
I enjoy your comments on the Karate Kid scene where the patience is the virtue that
is exemplified with the wax on wax off scene. It is nice to see that your blog epitomizes the meaning in the message.
Posted by Tim Johnson at 9:33 pm on 6 May, 2010.
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[...] I think Des Traynor captured our intent quite nicely in his article about Surface and other Microsof… When the Surface was released two years ago it was chastised by the public. The joke at the time was: “Apple and Microsoft both invest in multi-touch technology, Apple release the iPhone, Microsoft release a ,000 coffee table!”. [...]
Posted by Tune Up Your PC » Post Topic » A Touchy Subject at 12:13 am on 2 August, 2010
[...] I think Des Traynor captured our intent quite nicely in his article about Surface and other Microsof… When the Surface was released two years ago it was chastised by the public. The joke at the time was: “Apple and Microsoft both invest in multi-touch technology, Apple release the iPhone, Microsoft release a $15,000 coffee table!”. [...]
Posted by A Touchy Subject — Global Nerdy at 3:47 am on 2 August, 2010